A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
