Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
